Burak Bekdil | Nov 5, 2018 | 0
A New Road Map for the Turkish Economy #TurkeyEconomy
The next 15 days represent a critical period on the quick resolution of three important documents, three important statements of objectives in terms of economic management.
The presidential governance system’s first central government budget, the 2019 budget, the newly restructured and renamed three-year Medium-Term Program (MTP) and the 11th Development Plan. All three documents have strategic importance. During President Erdoğan’s talk about the Malazgirt Victory, he emphasized that Anatolia is a dam that protects the today and tomorrow of the Balkans, Central Asia and the Middle East. Following the same reasoning, with regards to the fact that Anatolia is one of the most important production, trade and the financial centers of Eurasia over the last thousands of years, these three fundamental documents will reveal the details of economic policy sets, measures, and road map to eliminate the global asymmetric attack on the Turkish economy, are eagerly awaited.
Measures to increase savings and to fight the current account deficit that constitute the two key pillars of financial stability; in addition to measures towards price stabilization, or in other words, the fight against inflation, and towards constricting public expenditures, and all the details of the sets of synchronized and harmonized economic policy to eliminate the cost-inflation-oriented inflationary process, will come out of these three documents.
The 2019 budget targets will show important details on how the next year is planned, the three-year MTP will provide important clues on the measures that will be taken during the rest of 2018 in addition to hints on the pace of growth path while taking into account price stability and financial stability of the 2019-2021 period. The 11th Development Plan, on the other side, will shed light on how the second and third generation of reforms in terms of the education, justice, the new public administration dimensions of the permanent measures for price stability and financial stability, sustainable growth path, local-national technology movement are shaped and on the road map ahead of us on how they will be implemented.
Together with these three critical documents, the teams in the economics field that will make intellectual contribution for this process to advance following a proactive coordination perspective will be clearer. The essence of the “internal” and “external” suggestions for “Turkey to sit with International Monetary Fund (IMF)” is actually the biggest threat and trap to keep our economy away from becoming a “center of gravity” that will protect the future of Eurasia, strengthen the investment climate, strengthen the inclusive development approach and deepen trade cooperation. “National Savings Movement,” a national growth path that is “real sector friendly,” together with an investment leap that will be supported by new financing opportunities provided by the “multi-layered” and “multi-faceted” diplomacy network led by President Erdoğan, and the fact that Turkey will successfully manage his process and eliminate the economic attach will enhance our “playmaker” role.
The backstage of the ‘IMF pressure’
The “global interest clamp” under the control of the “asymmetric order” ongoing since the 1860s allows global resources to flow over to the “Anglo-Saxon System” that carries out the patronage of the “asymmetric order” in three important areas. The first area is the control of the world’s financial system by ensuring that global savings are predominantly concentrated in dollars and a part of it in sterling. The second is that the U.S. dollar-denominated borrowing of the leading financial and non-financial institutions in developed and developing countries is strengthening the dependence on the U.S. dollar. The third is to encourage or motivate prominent economies in the global economic system to open up their local economies to international capital movements, free floating of their currency and free trade through institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Thus, many bitter examples of where U.S. dollar-dependent transnational corporations can always find cheap labor, cheap energy, cheap raw materials; the leading developing countries are getting a lower added value in exporting a unit by constantly breaking prices against each other, their need for dollar liquidity is constantly increasing, under the clamp of the international rating agencies – international financial institutions – [like the] IMF, these countries are first “puffed up” then motivated to “borrow,” then claimed that they are “dragged into a crisis,” and then, as last resort, are again forced to borrow with “heavy interest” burdens to get out of the crisis.
Argentina, Iceland, Ireland, Ecuador, and Greece have all recently experienced this process with the financial “hit men” – the playmakers of the global financial clamp. They are trying to pull Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Venezuela into the same process. Argentina had to negotiate with the IMF.
Turkey was attempted to be retaken into IMF-based global clamp during the 2008 global financial crisis. We have eliminated this clamp and cut through the economic siege. With President Erdoğan’s vision of leadership, we said “one minute” – we said the “world is bigger than five.” As Turkey encouraged emerging economies with its national sovereignty and national will and has cut through the “global financial siege” on its own, and built new economic-commercial-financial cooperation architecture with China, Russia, Qatar, they became more hateful towardTurkey for setting a “bad” example.
If Turkey carries out a new development initiative, without the IMF, based on local and national high-tech, with a new economic model, and a historic National Savings Mobilization, and sustains this process with prudence and determinism for two years, it will be the country that will accelerate the destruction of the asymmetric order. This is why, let’s read well the background of the “IMF pressure” coming from all international organizations and “hit men.”