John Nash Game Theory Applied to #TurkishElections2018
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after American mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr., is a solution concept of non- cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only by their strategy.
Now in Turkey, with a population of 80+million, the almost 50+million voters are the players in this game. Equilibrium will have a dramatic impact on political climate not only domestically, but also in the Middle East, Syria, Iraq, as well as Iran and Palestine. We shall observe further impact in Russia, Europe, and Northern Africa.
Current state of Turkey is not so promising, with the economic situation degrading and interest rates going up, with high unemployment, low investor confidence, decreasing investments, and lower consumer confidence in the 16-year old government.
The country needs a fresh start, the rule of law to prevail, parliamentary democracy, separation of powers. So, the opposition parties need new game changing policies. Voters need a new game plan. This new game plan will be shaped by the %10 electoral threshold. Any party with less than 10% of overall votes will not get represented in the parliament.
Existing political power has nothing to offer to voters other than a fictious safe place in afterlife in heaven, with ever growing numbers of mosques, prayers, religious services, religious schools, and no help for an improved investment climate, nothing for economic growth. The ruling party has a 40-45% voter share, more or less.
Intellectuals traditionally and historically tend to vote for major opposing party: i.e. left of the middle Republican People’s Party (CHP). However, that party has a 25% rooted base from their loyal voters, also more or less. That party has a politburo type of structure with no hope of improvement. A local religious sect also has a high share in their decision-making process
New IYI Party is, again, a group of older politicians who know politics but have no vitality or any young blood. This party has around a 15-20% voter share. They are the leftovers from the existing nationalist party, which is expected to disappear due to the 10% threshold. They will lose their voters to either the ruling party or to IYI Party.
Now we have a new party (HDP) with a local southeast Anatolia ethnic citizen base in coalition with Turkish socialist intellectuals. This party may get more than the %10 threshold, if participants change their traditional voting tendencies. This party must pass the threshold and should join the parliament and be a part of Turkish democracy.
It they can not pass the 10% voting threshold, then all their seats, almost 70+, will be allocated to the ruling party which will give them the governing majority in the parliament to continue executing their existing policies as well as controlling the domestic economy. Voters should consider that this is not sustainable for their own personal well-being in the long run.
Nash equilibrium will be reached only if the last party (HDP) joins the parliament, and they are part of a new coalition as opposed to the existing ruling party.
Nash equilibrium is also governing the Turkish presidential elections on the same day. Here, the two candidates with the most votes will run in the second round after 2-weeks and the voters for the southeast party will be the key parameter for the final winner.
The 24-june Turkish elections will have great impact on Turkish political environment. We shall review and experience he political structure with Nash equilibrium and with great enthusiasm.