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Turkish Election Possibilities #TurkishElections2018

Turkish Election Possibilities <a class="hashtagger" href="">#TurkishElections2018</a>

Turkey has serious problems regarding just and fair elections. “Equality” is a very important concept for democratic governance, as are “justice” and “respect for law.”

Unfortunately, over the past 16 years state funds and resources have increasingly been channeled by one political group to fund its electoral campaigns, disguised as “inauguration” of certain projects that have mostly already been put into use in the past.

All top courts of the country, including the Supreme Electoral Board, have become subservient to the political authorities. What’s more, one presidential candidate and one electoral alliance have been utilizing all kinds of public resources and funds, while opposition candidates and parties have been conducting electoral campaigns with limited resources.

Worse, one presidential candidate is conducting his presidential campaign from jail. Was he sentenced and is he serving a prison term? No. Why is he in prison? Can he flee the country? Doesn’t this country have the means and resources to prevent such an escape attempt?

Still, every election poses at least some degree of risk for ruling politicians, even if the race is not just or fair. There remain several possibilities that could emerge from the snap presidential and parliamentary elections ballot boxes on June 24. Let me list some of the possible results.

1- The first possibility is that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as well as his alliance between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) emerge victorious.

2- The second possibility is that Erdoğan succeeds in his reelection bid but the parliamentary majority goes to the alliance of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the İYİ (Good) Party and the Felicity Party, plus the Kurdish issued-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

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3- The third possibility is that the presidency goes to either CHP candidate Muharrem İnce or İYİ Party candidate Meral Akşener over two rounds, while parliament is held by the AKP-MHP alliance.

4- The fourth possibility is a double victory of the opposition: Winning both the presidency and parliament.

5- The final, unlikely, possibility is that the elections are canceled altogether because of a Constitutional Court ruling, an emergency development, a war, or something equally terrible.

If elections are neither just nor fair from the start, what is the point of speculating about any of these possibilities? If there is an “absolute decision maker” deciding for all Turkish citizens, and if there is a rampant fear of election rigging, is there any meaning in talking about a prospective electoral victory of the opposition?

Hope dies last. If confidence in the capability of this nation to overcome fear and decide for change fails, then it is obvious that the struggle is lost before even it started.

Read more:

This is how Sigma followers have voted for in a poll related to these scenarios:

June 24 Elections Forecasts

About The Author

Yusuf Kanli

Born in Cyprus in 1959, Yusuf Kanlı is a graduate of the English Language and Literature Department of the Faculty of Letters of the Ankara University. He started journalism with the Turkish Daily News in 1978. Until he briefly left the paper in 1985 (for military service in Northern Cyprus) he served as diplomatic correspondent, assistant foreign news editor and assistant editor. During this period he was as well one of the two co-authors of an annual reference book on Turkey, “Turkey Almanac”. After completing his military service he returned the Daily News as assistant editor. In 1989 he became executive editor and also started writing daily opinion articles. He continued to be one of the co-authors of the “Turkey Almanac” annual reference book. In February 1993, over differences with the publisher on editorial policy, he quit the paper and joined the Anatolia News Agency (AA) as deputy foreign news chief. He stayed with the Anatolia News Agency until September 1995. In this period, he covered the Armenia-Azerbaijan war over Nogorno-Karabagh, covered developments in the post-independence Central Asian republics. Because of his refusal as the duty editor to run a manipulated news story demanded by the then lady prime minister of the country, he was fired from the AA, a development that Kanlı considers as his “medal of honor” in the profession. On his return to the Daily News for a third time in October 1995, he first became an editor at large but soon assumed the responsibility of electronic publishing and established Turkey’s first daily updated English language news web site, the TDN Online on May 19, 1996 (now In January 1997, he became executive editor of the Daily News for a second time and stayed in that post until he was appointed as editor-in-chief in June 2004. In February 2007, he quit all executive duties and became a contract columnist of the newspaper. He has been also writing weekly articles in Turkish for a variety of newspapers and news portals in Northern Cyprus. He is a former chairperson and the honorary chairperson of Diplomacy Correspondents Association (DMD) of Turkey, an active member of Association of Foreign Policy Council, a member of the executive board and vice chairperson of the Association of Journalists and coordinator of the Press for Freedom project, which has been monitoring and reporting on press and freedom of expression issues in Turkey since 2013. He has been a member of several associations and foundations, mostly established by Turkish Cypriots living in Turkey or abroad. He is married to Dr. Aydan Kanlı and has one daughter, Cansu. He has Turkish, Turkish Cypriot and Cypriot triple nationality.

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