Sociological events generally happen on the heels of opposites interacting. Every action creates a reaction, which in turn transforms into an action inviting a reaction. This interaction goes on indefinitely.

These are the reasons why Meral Aksener first, and Muharrem Ince later, caused such an unexpected amount of outburst of hope and excitement: scorns, threats, ostracizing, insults, belittling, allegations of treachery, unsubstantiated firings, imprisonments, injustice, lawlessness. Furthermore, the complete control of all means of communications against these practices, whether they be print, electronic or social. Add to that the politicizing of the judicial system leading to restrictions on freedom of expression and fundamental rights, a bruised sense of justice. Also, the sharp turns in domestic and international policies, frequent change of sides and sentiments, further ostracizing of new segments of the society after every such turn, sycophantism, dividing the nation on basis of religion, sect, race and ethnicity.

All these have had a profoundly overwhelming effect on the Turkish people, so much so that a reactionary outburst was almost unavoidable.

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The Gezi protests of 2013 was when sociological reactions first found a footing and put them on national and international display.

Those in power had two alternatives to choose from as their reaction. They could either implement a true sense of democracy, or they would double down on their oppressive tactics and slide towards a more autocratic government.

I had foreseen the government’s propensity to choose the oppressive way out, and also that this would fasten the wearing down of the ruling party.

And not to my surprise, Erdogan and his government responded to Gezi protests with an iron fist, by placing further restrictions on individual freedoms, and systematically increasing the level of pressure along the way.

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MHP chose to include itself in the pedestals of the oppression regime and didn’t have a problem with the democratic regime taking a beating. And that caused the initial burst of hope to come to light:

Meral Aksener and her IYI Party was born.

When CHP helped Aksener with the lending of 15 MPs, the spark turned into a proper fire. (I was on the plane that evening, people walked up to me and said they were feeling much more hopeful).

Muharrem Ince being announced as CHP’s presidential candidate was the much-needed fuel to the fire. Because Mr. Ince has come onto the stage as a reaction of the oppressed masses and has become the poster boy for Turkey’s yearning for democracy. Muharrem Ince, in that sense, represents our longing and ideals for a truly democratic Republic.

If he wins, it will be a victory for democracy in Turkey!

Originally published at: http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/969800/Umut_patlamasinin_nedenleri.html