Ali Akbar Valayati, the chief advisor of Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has criticised US policy in the region and Syria through harsh words which could also affect Turkish-Iranian relations.

He stated that either “the US willingly exit East of Euphrates or Iran will get the job done.”

Within US context this sentence has no obligations. However, taking into consideration that Turkey is preparing to liberate the same location following operations in Afrin and Munbij, there seems to be a conflict of interest. Herein, Iran is not only warning the US but also conveying the message of “the east of Euphrates” is ours to Ankara.

Thus, under the pretext of clearing American units, Iran is planning to take over the power in the region. In other words, the influence on the southern borders of Turkey will be transferred from the US to Iran.

This situation will likely cause the “status quo of Qasr-e Shirin” to break away and would further lead to speculations of a “covert relation” between the US and Iran.

When considering these claims with the position, Iran took during “September 25th Referendum” crisis and the will to establish a “deepened relation” with the Barzani’s, they ought to be concrete.

In other words, when taking into account assertions made by Ali Akbar Valayati and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it is confirmed that Iran is looking at the crisis as an opportunity and willing to make gains by systematically escalating the deadlock.

Therefore Iran is projecting a policy which includes gaining access to the Mediterranean Sea on the one hand and encircling Turkey on the other.

Posters posted by Basij, a force established by Qassim Soleimani, the commander of Al-Quds Forces and operating under IRGC showcased the complex relationship between the US and IRGC. The poster in question contained the following text; “We’re not worried about Trump. Bush gave us Iraq, Obama Syria and Trump shall hopefully give us Israel.”

The developments indicate that Trump is progressively delivering Northern Iraq and Northern Syria to Iran under the pretext of “conflict”. However, there is no indication regarding Israel whatsoever.

It is worth mentioning that the poster missed a clause, which is; “Bush also gave us Afghanistan”.

There is yet another occurrence that’s is worth to de deliberated. This statement is far more critical than Velayeti’s assertations.

To relieve Turkey, a day after Velayati’s announcements, spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that; “Compared to earlier eras, relations with Turkey are far better. Misunderstandings have been minimised, and close relationships have been established.”

Herein the keyword is undoubtedly “misunderstanding”. We are facing a time of plenty questions and worries/mischief.

There is another wing in Iran that disagree with the statements of Velayati and IRGC, and if the situation is indeed as it is, then the relation between Turkey-Iran is going to face challenging times.

As mentioned in previous works, understanding Iranian politics is burdensome, and Iran’s weakest point stems from here.

On the other hand, while such developments continue, a Russian jet was downed, and a Turkish tank was hit. It is understood that alliances are still weak and unreliable.

Originally published in https://ankasam.org/en/east-euphrates-west-iran/