From Western viewpoint this is equivalent to choosing between a rock and a hard place since continued habits and discourses lead to such result in Turkish-Western relations.
The Western front must make a choice between two options; either act according to the reality of the new world order or be a victim of status quo.
Conditions that Turkey demand are apparent and the Western world is well aware of them. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will approach Turkey under current circumstances.
Therefore, the West is currently pursuing a “limbo strategy” against Turkey. They are neither severing relations nor proposing a new format that Ankara would favour. The West also needs time; regarding power struggle both within itself and against others. Therefore, there is an unsustainable situation regarding the parties, especially with Turkey.
Turkey is aware of this contradiction and strategy. That is why it has accelerated attempts to turn the situation into an opportunity and keeps on pushing the West to make a concrete decision. Since 24th of August 2016, Turkey has begun proving dominance in its proximity which has led to a severe and stressful situation.
Different reactions associated with confusion regarding the operation carried out by Turkey by the US and the western world are a clear indicator of this situation. Turkey is the new address of debate and competition between the US and West.
Turkey Should Deepen and Expand its Military Offensive!
Turkey’s military presence and achievement on the ground is strengthening its hand at the diplomacy table. This is the underlying reason for the increased interest towards Ankara. Turkey, which until yesterday was pushed towards isolation has become a particular entity not only in the context of the West and the East but also within Western parties.
The crucial role of Ankara in constructing the New World Order has made Turkey a vital actor who cannot be mislaid, notably for the US and the Western states. Despite everything, the US, Western nations and NATO recognise the need to implement a new cooperation course with Turkey base on shared interests.
Otherwise, along with the global hegemony of the US, its leadership status within the Western sphere will be controversial. This would be equivalent to a second US civil war. Therefore, the US is confronted with the obligation to take a step back on the issue of YPG-PYD/PKK/SDG. On the other hand, there is an essential opportunity for Turkey to widen and deepen the scope of its operation.
The Afrin Operation is a Major Blow to the Greater Middle-East Project (GMEP)!
On 24th August 2016, Turkey took the first concrete response against being encircled by the GMEP by initiating an offensive towards Carablus and El-Bab. The typical reaction showcased by neighbouring countries towards the Referenda Crisis manifested in Northern Iraq are also part of such commitment.
At this point, Afrin is the continuation of the Euphrates Shield Operation which contends the Greater Middle-East Project of the US in the region.
With their Geopolitical-Strategic Location, Afrin and Munbic are of Great Importance
First, Afrin has a paramount location due to its exit to the Mediterranean and is a strategic aspect for “GMEP Kurdistan” which is being constructed under GMEP. It is a bridge between East and West of Euphrates. Therefore, a military control in Afrin and Munbic will prevent the establishment of “GMEP Kurdistan” in Syria and make an offensive toward the east of Euphrates easier.
A Second Qandil Shouldn’t be Revived!
The PKK terrorist organisation carries a significant amount of its operations through these mountainous and densely forested areas which are difficult to control. This region which couldn’t be taken under control by the Syrian state well before the civil war has even led to a crisis between Turkey and Syria in the 1990s and is also considered as a “Second Qandil”. Therefore, Afrin is a significant base for terrorists and its capture will lead to a substantial psychological impact.
For this reason, the US had to take a step back in the Northern Iraq referenda crisis and Afrin. The same applies to Munbic and the east of Euphrates. Ankara should in no way allow the US to negotiate about the eastern Euphrates over Munbic.
It should be noted that the operation launched towards Afrin and is deemed to cover Munbic and east of Euphrates carries the primary objective of securing Turkey’s borders and preventing the formation of a terror corridor which target the perpetuity of state.
In this context, PYD-YPG/PKK/SDG and DEASH are the prime targets of Turkey. These organisations function as proxy element waging war against Turkey and the deployment of such units pose immense threats and should be cleansed thoroughly. Otherwise, operations undertaken since 24th of August will lose their significance and the US will once again try to implement its scheme which is now effectively on hiatus.
Originally published in https://ankasam.org/en/winning-losing-turkey/